US tariff policy and a transformation of global trade architecture

The second Trump administration’s tariff regime has triggered a profound transformation of the global trade architecture, extending beyond traditional protectionism to a systematic dismantling of multilateral institutions. This paper examines how the collapse of trust in US trade commitments and the erosion of export-led development pathways across the Global South are catalyzing the construction of alternative institutional frameworks. Through analysis of the EU–CPTPP partnership initiative, the acceleration of Asian regionalism, and BRICS expansion, it demonstrates that states are engaging in purposeful institutional innovation rather than descending into fragmentation. The findings indicate that the coming years constitute a critical window for determining whether emerging regional arrangements evolve into inclusive multilateral alternatives or harden into competing economic blocs. Sustaining open trade in this environment will depend on building coalitions grounded in predictable, rules-based governance that move beyond reactive responses to U.S. disruption.