Monitoring cropland cultivation, abandonment, fallowing and recultivation dynamics with regard to conflict intensity in war-affected Ukraine

Three years of sustained shelling, mining, and active combat have caused major cropland abandonment in Ukraine, particularly along frontlines. Existing estimates of abandoned areas vary up to fourfold, due to inconsistent definitions, baselines and biased estimators of area. Many studies classify fallow land – temporarily unused but managed – as abandoned. In contrast, abandoned lands (neither cultivated nor managed) are often contaminated by unexploded ordnance, mines, or chemicals, requiring clearance before recultivation. Disentangling fallow from abandoned cropland is therefore crucial for post-war recovery planning and for determining tax relief for farmers unable to access their fields. We applied a two-level stratified random sampling design and unbiased estimators of area to quantify the extent of cultivated, fallow, and abandoned cropland. Four regions with distinct conflict dynamics were delineated using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset, and within each region stratified random samples were drawn from a Planet-based cultivation status map. Between 2021 and 2024, full Ukraine’s cultivated area declined by 2.5 Mha (-8.5%). By 2024, 7% of cropland (2.213 ± 0.256 Mha) was abandoned, of which 1.121 ± 0.148 Mha to 1.671 ± 0.169 Mha may be permanently lost to cultivation, primarily along frontlines. Fallow areas increased nationally, especially in territories reclaimed from occupation. In 2024 alone, up to 0.472 ± 0.143 Mha were recultivated, by far exceeding official land clearance figures and suggesting widespread reliance on informal or self-organized demining. These results establish a replicable framework for monitoring land-use dynamics in conflict zones, supporting evidence-based recovery, landmine clearance prioritization, and agricultural policy planning in post-war Ukraine. • Cultivated, fallow and abandoned area estimation in Ukraine (2021-2024). • 7% of Ukraine’s cropland abandoned in 2024. • Recultivation outpaced official demining, indicating informal land clearance. • Framework supports policy, tax relief and demining prioritization in conflict zones.