Development of a methodology for evaluating the susceptibility of naval surface ships based on naval engagement simulation

This study presents a simulation-based methodology for evaluating the susceptibility of naval surface ships in realistic engagement environments. Susceptibility is a critical indicator of ship survivability, yet most prior assessments have relied on deterministic or static probabilistic chains that assume fixed probabilities for detection, tracking, and interception. Such approaches fail to capture the dynamic and conditional nature of actual naval engagements. To overcome this limitation, the proposed framework integrates stochastic modeling with discrete-event simulation, allowing probabilistic variables to be dynamically updated in response to real-time factors such as sensor degradation, adaptive threat maneuvers, environmental uncertainty, and realistic operational constraints (e.g., command latency, resource limitations, and human-in-the-loop decision structures). This enables a comprehensive evaluation across both ship design and operational dimensions. The methodology is implemented within a naval engagement simulator that incorporates probabilistic target detection, dynamic weapon assignment, guided-missile interception logic, and countermeasure deployment. Compared with conventional methods, the framework demonstrates enhanced adaptability and fidelity in modeling multi-threat, time-sensitive scenarios. A case study illustrates its application to derive and assess susceptibility reduction strategies, confirming its utility as a decision-support tool for survivability-driven ship design and tactical planning. Importantly, this study is the first to formalize susceptibility as a dynamic probability redistribution process within a DEVS-based simulation framework, thereby bridging the gap between theoretical survivability models and realistic naval engagement scenarios.