Individual flood expectations assessment and insurance decision factors in polish floodplains

The research was conducted in twelve regions of Poland, particularly those that were exposed to flooding, encompassing residential neighborhoods within 500 m of major rivers. The surveyed population consisted of 650 households that had experienced flood events and material losses within the last six years. This study assessed the determinants of perceived flood risk and household decisions to purchase flood insurance. The central hypothesis posited that the frequency of river alert level exceedances would shape residents’ expectations of flood danger and their insurance decisions. The research combined hydrological probabilistic modeling with an exploratory factor analysis, utilizing a detailed questionnaire aimed at measuring risk perception, insurance behavior, and the influence of social and environmental factors. Findings reveal a weak yet significant connection between household flood expectations and the actual frequency of river alert level exceedances. Social influences, including advice from friends and family as well as personal flood experiences, emerge as the strongest predictors of insurance purchases. Notably, while the fear of catastrophic loss does not correlate with flood statistics or insurance uptake, it is associated with income and household size. These findings underscore the importance of local networks and firsthand experiences, suggesting a need for community-centered flood risk communication and the inclusion of informal channels in flood risk management policies. • Probabilistic models for objective flood risk assessment. • Subjective risk weakly matches objective measurements. • Social suggestion and experience drive insurance decisions. • Fear of loss tied to income, not actual risk. • Higher education lowers, low income raises, susceptibility to suggestion.