A Quantitative Method for Evaluating the Predictive Utility of Linked Scores

Abstract In U.S. colleges, admissions officers tend to use ACT‐SAT concordant scores, also known as linked scores, as predictions of individual scores for tests not taken. The major problem in this situation is the use of linked scores without thoroughly examining their predictive utility (i.e., the degree to which they serve as predicted scores at the individual level). To address this problem, we developed a method, referred to as the “predictive utility analysis,” for quantitatively evaluating the prediction accuracy and error properties of linked scores. A Monte Carlo simulation provided several findings on the behavior of the indices formulated in this paper regarding the number of common examinees, the number of items, and the correlation between tests. Furthermore, we illustrated the predictive utility analysis in concordance and equating with the results of an actual large‐scale test, the Japan Law School Admission Test. In both examples, we found that the linked scores obtained by using the equipercentile or linear equating method could be used as predictions of individual scores. Our findings suggest that the predictive utility analysis offers practical guidance for enhancing the use of linked scores as well as supporting institutional accountability.