No longer polar opposites? Similarities in recent Arctic and Antarctic sea ice change

Until recently, trends in sea-ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic seemed to follow opposite pathways. While Arctic sea ice showed a strong and prolonged decrease, Antarctic sea ice displayed a small but significant increase. Yet, in 2015, Antarctic sea ice experienced a sharp decline to an unprecedented summertime low in 2016 and a subsequent year-round minimum in 2023. These series of events have suggested the start of a sustained decline in Antarctic sea ice, similar to that in the Arctic. Meanwhile, the Arctic sea ice is transitioning towards a seasonal regime that resembles that of the Antarctic sea ice. These ongoing changes motivated the workshop on {\it The Role of Sea Ice and its Variability in the Climate System}, which brought together the Arctic and Antarctic research communities in July 2024 at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy. Here, we synthesize the discussions that took place during the workshop on changes in sea-ice properties as well as on oceanic and atmospheric drivers of these changes. We acknowledged that understanding these drivers requires enhanced observations of sea-ice parameters, such as thickness, improved process representation in models, such as ocean mesoscale eddies, and a more integrated approach to studying both polar regions. Our ability to predict sea ice changes, and hence assess future climate risks, depends on this refined understanding.

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Published
2025-11-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.176229943.38616843/v1
Primary Topic
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

No longer polar opposites? Similarities in recent Arctic and Antarctic sea ice change

François Challet, Mukund Gupta, Kirstin Hoffmann, Birte Gülk et al.
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
article

No longer polar opposites? Similarities in recent Arctic and Antarctic sea ice change

François Challet, Mukund Gupta, Kirstin Hoffmann, Birte Gülk, Inga Jane Smith, Carolina O. Dufour, Bianca Mezzina, T. S. Fousiya, Maria Vittoria Guarino, María Paz Chidichimo, H Shea, Francesco Cocetta, Alessandro Silvano, Petra Heil, F. Alexander Haumann, Feba Francis, Theo Spira, Sharon Stammerjohn, Cecilia M. Bitz, Camille Lique, Fı́z F. Pérez, Ivy Frenger, Marina Noro, Miriam Bennett, Giulia Castellani, Torge Martin, Rachel Diamond, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andreas Klocker, Amy Solomon, François Massonnet, Benjamin Richaud, Kate Oglethorpe
article en

Abstract

Until recently, trends in sea-ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic seemed to follow opposite pathways. While Arctic sea ice showed a strong and prolonged decrease, Antarctic sea ice displayed a small but significant increase. Yet, in 2015, Antarctic sea ice experienced a sharp decline to an unprecedented summertime low in 2016 and a subsequent year-round minimum in 2023. These series of events have suggested the start of a sustained decline in Antarctic sea ice, similar to that in the Arctic. Meanwhile, the Arctic sea ice is transitioning towards a seasonal regime that resembles that of the Antarctic sea ice. These ongoing changes motivated the workshop on {\it The Role of Sea Ice and its Variability in the Climate System}, which brought together the Arctic and Antarctic research communities in July 2024 at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy. Here, we synthesize the discussions that took place during the workshop on changes in sea-ice properties as well as on oceanic and atmospheric drivers of these changes. We acknowledged that understanding these drivers requires enhanced observations of sea-ice parameters, such as thickness, improved process representation in models, such as ocean mesoscale eddies, and a more integrated approach to studying both polar regions. Our ability to predict sea ice changes, and hence assess future climate risks, depends on this refined understanding.

National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (IT), University of East Anglia (GB), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), British Antarctic Survey (GB), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), University of Bonn (DE), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (AR), Ifremer (FR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), University of California, Los Angeles (US), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), Universidade de São Paulo (BR), University of Bremen (DE), University of Washington (US), University of Cambridge (GB), Cambia (AU), Australian Regenerative Medicine Institute (AU), University of Colorado System (US), Göteborgs Stads (SE), GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE), University of Hyderabad (IN), Sorbonne Université (FR), NORCE Research AS (NO), CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (FR), University of Southampton (GB), ENEA Casaccia Research Centre, Monash University (AU), University of Otago (NZ), University of Gothenburg (SE), UCLouvain (BE), Delft University of Technology (NL)
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Openalex Percentile: Top 62%
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
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