Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability mode of the global climate system with significant effects on a variety of weather conditions, including extremes. Past events illustrate the severe societal consequences this phenomenon has through weather disasters, food security, health, economic growth, migration, and conflict. ENSO's interactions with global warming are not well understood, although they can lead to significant changes in the characteristics of extreme events. Climate conditions in 2024/2025 may favor widespread severe extreme events with global temperature anomalies nearing or surpassing 1.5°C and a transition from strong El Niño to La Niña conditions. Here, we show that current warming has amplified the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation extremes worldwide. Results show that warming has produced a considerable amplification of the effects of ENSO episodes over such extremes, as well as extensively modified spatial patterns. We show that considerable shares of the population, gross domestic product, agriculture, and ecosystems now face a higher risk from extreme events due to the interactions between increased anthropogenic forcing and ENSO.

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Publication Details

Journal
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Published
2025-11-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.70122
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.11
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article

Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events

Pierre Perrón, Yohei Yamamoto, Francisco Estrada
1 citations
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Climate variability and models
1.11
article

Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events

Pierre Perrón, Yohei Yamamoto, Francisco Estrada
article en
1 citations

Abstract

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability mode of the global climate system with significant effects on a variety of weather conditions, including extremes. Past events illustrate the severe societal consequences this phenomenon has through weather disasters, food security, health, economic growth, migration, and conflict. ENSO's interactions with global warming are not well understood, although they can lead to significant changes in the characteristics of extreme events. Climate conditions in 2024/2025 may favor widespread severe extreme events with global temperature anomalies nearing or surpassing 1.5°C and a transition from strong El Niño to La Niña conditions. Here, we show that current warming has amplified the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation extremes worldwide. Results show that warming has produced a considerable amplification of the effects of ENSO episodes over such extremes, as well as extensively modified spatial patterns. We show that considerable shares of the population, gross domestic product, agriculture, and ecosystems now face a higher risk from extreme events due to the interactions between increased anthropogenic forcing and ENSO.

Annals of the New York Academy of SciencesVol. 1554(1)
Boston University (US), Hitotsubashi University (JP), The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (JP), Institute of Applied Energy (JP), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
Openalex Percentile: Top 18%
Climate variability and models
1.11
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Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events — Pierre Perrón, Yohei Yamamoto, et al. · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS