Empirical analysis of the carbon-economy nexus in industrial parks using an integrated decoupling-decomposition framework from a major industrial region

Industrial parks as critical carriers of China's industrial development, they face significant pressure for low-carbon transformation. Current research on carbon emissions primarily focuses on national or sectoral levels, leaving a gap in understanding the driving factors and the carbon emissions-economic development mechanism at the industrial park level, which hinders precise emission reduction strategies. This study examines 44 industrial parks in the Yangtze River Delta, analyzes the temporal evolution of carbon emissions and assesses the economic development levels of the industrial parks based on the TOPSIS model. The Tapio decoupling model is adopted to analyze the decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic development, while the LMDI decomposition method is used to explore the driving factors. Empirical findings reveal that carbon emissions in these parks exhibit fluctuating growth, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic development is predominantly weak, transitioning to strong decoupling by 2023, key factors driving carbon emissions include per capita industrial development levels and industrial land scale effects. The combined application of the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition demonstrates universality in analyzing carbon emission drivers in industrial parks, providing theoretical and practical insights for carbon reduction in industrial parks.