The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions
Dengue fever, influenced by climate dynamics and human mobility in nonendemic regions, remains poorly understood. We assessed the effects of large-scale climate features on domestic dengue outbreaks using data from China (2013-2021) and projections for 2023-2028, incorporating climate, human mobility, and environmental factors. A significant positive correlation (<i>r</i> = 0.89, <i>P</i> < 0.01) was found between domestic dengue incidence and overseas imported cases. Significant associations were also noted with domestic (<i>F</i> <sub>2.96, 25.78</sub> = 518.03, <i>P</i> < 0.01) and international human mobility (<i>F</i> <sub>2.77, 25.78</sub> = 66.84, <i>P</i> < 0.01), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index (<i>F</i> <sub>2.98, 25.78</sub> = 522.84), and vectorial capacity (<i>F</i> <sub>2.92, 25.78</sub> = 338.74, <i>P</i> < 0.01). IOD is the most influential climate feature, with a trend of intensification over time. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm incorporating IOD (<i>r</i> <sup>2</sup> = 0.56) predicted outbreaks in 2025, 2026, and 2028. Our findings reveal that large-scale climate phenomenon, notably the IOD, and human mobility significantly influence dengue domestic outbreaks in China through a "dislocated impact."
Authors
- Xiangliang Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3574-5665)
- Huatang Zeng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2771-7382)
- Qian Han (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6245-5252)
- Lei Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2566-2118)
- Kaixing Dong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6842-7145)
- Yong Luo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7721-3974)
- Cunrui Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9139-8354)
- Nils Chr. Stenseth (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1591-5399)
- Jing Gao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7732-456X)
- Yongman Guo
- John S. Ji (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5002-118X)
- Cui Zhou
- Chutian Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7510-6075)
- Huihui Yuan
- Jian Ma (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0211-8208)
- Luo Le-xuan
- Wannian Liang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1764-5502)
- Qiyong Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6692-1537)
Institutions
- Sun Yat-sen University (CN)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Hainan University (CN)
- North West Agriculture and Forestry University (CN)
- Ministry of Education (ME)
- Vanke (China) (CN)
- Shenzhen University Health Science Center (CN)
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
- Northwest A&F University (CN)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- PNAS Nexus
- Published
- 2025-10-31
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf350
- Primary Topic
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Tsinghua University
- National Science and Technology Major Project
- Chinese Academy of Engineering