Research on the Analysis of Influential Factors of Short-Period Passenger Flow of Urban Rail Transit Based on Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity

Urban Rail Transit (URT), as an important part of the modern urban transportation system, undertakes a large number of daily commuter passenger flow transportation needs. In this context, the in-depth analysis of influential factors of URT passenger flow has become an important issue in transportation management and optimization. This paper selects 13 POI (Point of Interest) types and the surrounding demographic data as the independent variables, and constructs a multi-scale spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression (MGTWR) model with the daily morning peak inbound traffic of the URT station as the dependent variable. The results of the study show that the positive effect of the business and residential variables on the URT morning peak inbound passenger flow is the most significant, reflecting the fact that the increase in these variables promotes the morning peak inbound passenger flow; relatively speaking, the scenic spot variables have a negative effect on the URT morning peak inbound passenger flow, indicating that the increase in these variables inhibits the morning peak inbound passenger flow. In addition, the corporate variables have a negative effect on the morning peak inbound passenger flow, and the company variables have a negative effect on the daily peak inbound passenger flow of URT. URT morning peak inbound passenger flow is non-stationary, i.e., the degree of its influence fluctuates greatly in different spatial and temporal scales. In order to further understand these influence mechanisms, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the above three types of variables, revealing the influence of their spatio-temporal heterogeneity on URT passenger flow.