Development Level Evaluation and Driving Factors Analysis of China’s New Energy System: Based on Random Forest

Sustainable utilization of energy depends on the establishment of an advanced energy system. As the world’s largest consumer and importer of energy, China’s progress in this field has attracted considerable attention. This study seeks to address the limitations of most existing research, which largely remains at a qualitative level, by expanding perspectives and methodologies. Utilizing think-tank research approaches and indicator system evaluation methods, it quantitatively evaluates the development level of new energy systems across thirty provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2023. Machine learning methods were applied to empirically analyze the driving mechanisms of “new” factors through the construction of a random forest model. The results reveal that: (1) China’s new energy system exhibited an overall positive development trend, albeit at a relatively slow pace and with notable spatial disparities. The development levels of the three core objectives followed a gradient pattern, showing marked improvements after the implementation of China’s supply-side structural reform policies. (2) Innovation funding and high-level labor input served as the dominant driving forces for development, while factors such as the scale of the technology market, the proportion of the tertiary sector, and environmental regulation investment played supplementary roles, with regional variations observed.