Dual-Stochastic Extreme Response Surface Reliability Analysis Method Based on Genetic Algorithm to Vector Nozzle

To enhance the accuracy and efficiency of reliability analyses for an aero-engine vectoring exhaust nozzle (VEN), a dual-stochastic extreme response surface method based on the genetic algorithm (DSERSM-GA) is developed by integrating the genetic algorithm, the random extremum response surface method, and the dual response surface method in the paper. In the proposed method, a limited set of Monte Carlo samples is strategically utilized to construct and optimize a population-based response surface model, forming a robust mathematical framework for reliability prediction. The uncertainty sources considered include aerodynamic loads acting on the vector nozzle, material densities of the expansion plate and triangular link, as well as the elastic moduli of these components. Stress and deformation responses of both the expansion plate and triangular link are employed as the performance metrics. The proposed DSERSM-GA methodology is validated through dynamic reliability simulations applied to a vector nozzle system, yielding distributions and corresponding reliability indices of critical responses. Comparative analyses against traditional Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and conventional Extreme Response Surface Methods (ERSM) demonstrate that the DSERSM-GA significantly reduces computational costs while preserving high predictive accuracy.