National-Scale Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Turkey Using Ensemble Machine Learning Models: An Interpretability-Centered Approach

This study presents an advanced, interpretability-focused machine learning framework for forecasting electricity consumption in Turkey over the period 2016–2024. The proposed approach is based on a high-dimensional dataset that incorporates a diverse set of variables, including sector-specific electricity usage (residential, industrial, lighting, agricultural, and commercial), electricity production, trade metrics (imports and exports in USD), and macroeconomic indicators such as the Industrial Production Index (IPI). A comprehensive set of eight state-of-the-art regression algorithms—including ensemble models such as CatBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Bagging Regressor—were developed and rigorously evaluated. Among these, CatBoost emerged as the most accurate model, achieving R2 values of 0.9144 for electricity production and 0.8247 for electricity consumption. Random Forest and LightGBM followed closely, further confirming the effectiveness of tree-based ensemble methods in capturing nonlinear relationships in complex datasets. To enhance model interpretability, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and traditional feature importance analyses were applied, revealing that residential electricity consumption was the dominant predictor across all models, accounting for more than 70% of the variance explained in consumption forecasts. In contrast, macroeconomic indicators and temporal variables showed marginal contributions, suggesting that electricity demand in Turkey is predominantly driven by internal sectoral consumption trends rather than external economic or seasonal dynamics. In addition to historical evaluation, scenario-based forecasting was conducted for the 2025–2030 period, incorporating varying assumptions about economic growth and population trends. These scenarios demonstrated the model’s robustness and adaptability to different future trajectories, offering valuable foresight for strategic energy planning. The methodological contributions of this study lie in its integration of high-dimensional, multivariate data with transparent, interpretable machine learning models, making it a robust and scalable decision-support tool for policymakers, energy authorities, and infrastructure planners aiming to enhance national energy resilience and policy responsiveness.