Energy Consumption and Export Growth Decoupling in Post-WTO China

This study examines the dynamic decoupling relationship between energy consumption and export growth in China since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) (2002–2018) by combining the noncompetitive input–output model, Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The results reveal the substantial energy consumption generated by China’s export trade, emphasizing the urgency of reducing energy consumption in export trade for energy conservation and emissions reduction. Since its WTO accession, China has experienced sustained improvement in the energy decoupling effect during the growth of export trade, entering a period of strong decoupling from 2014 to 2018. The expanded export scale remains a major obstacle to decoupling export trade growth from energy consumption, while decreased energy intensity in exports is a significant driving force for energy decoupling, with relatively minor impact from changes in the export trade structure. By integrating non-competitive input–output modeling, Tapio decoupling analysis, and LMDI decomposition, this study develops a novel framework to investigate the structural drivers of energy–export decoupling in China from 2002 to 2018. Bridging methods from energy systems, trade economics, and policy modeling, it contributes to the field of multi-disciplinary sustainability by offering sector-level insights and decomposition-based evidence to support more efficient, equitable, and sustainable trade transitions.