Application of Dynamic PRA to Nuclear Power Plant Operation Support—Evaluation of Plant Operation Support Using a Simple Plant Model

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, there has been an increased focus on risk assessment and the practical application of its findings to safety enhancement. In particular, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) used in conjunction with plant dynamics analysis is being considered for accident management (AM) and operational support. Determining countermeasure priorities in AM can be challenging due to the diversity of accident scenarios. In multi-unit operations, the complexity of scenarios increases in cases of simultaneous disasters, which makes establishing response operations priorities more difficult. Dynamic PRA methods can efficiently generate and assess complex scenarios by incorporating changes in plant state. This paper introduces the continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method, a dynamic PRA approach, as a tool for prioritizing countermeasures to support nuclear power plant operations. The proposed method involves three steps: (1) generating exhaustive scenarios that include events, operator actions, and system responses; (2) classifying scenarios according to countermeasure patterns; and (3) assigning priority based on risk data for each pattern. An evaluation was conducted using a simple plant model to analyze event countermeasure patterns for addressing steam generator tube rupture during single-unit operation. The generated scenario patterns included depressurization by opening a pressurizer relief valve (DP), depressurization via heat removal through the steam generator (DSG), and both operations combined (DP + DSG). The timing of the response operations varied randomly, resulting in multiple scenarios. The assessment, based on reactor pressure vessel water level and the potential for core damage, showed that the time margin to core damage depended on the countermeasure pattern. The findings indicate that the effectiveness of each countermeasure can be evaluated and that it is feasible to identify which countermeasure should be prioritized.