Simulations of Damage Scenarios in Urban Areas: The Case of the Seismic Sequence of L’Aquila 2009

Simulation of damage scenarios is an important tool for seismic risk mitigation. While a detailed analysis of each building would be preferable to assess their vulnerability to seismic hazard, simplified yet robust methodologies are necessary at a large urban scale to overcome computational costs or data unavailability. Moreover, most damage assessments simulate single seismic shocks, though in many real sequences, with a series of aftershocks following the mainshocks, it is observed that buildings endure damage accumulation, which increases their vulnerability over time. The present study builds on a recently developed methodology for simulating urban-scale damage scenarios across seismic sequences, explicitly accounting for damage accumulation and the evolution of vulnerability. In particular, the availability of a dataset reporting the damage observed in the L’Aquila area (Italy) during the severe earthquake sequence of 2009, in combination with the georeferenced maps representing the spatial distribution of the ground motion, allows for the calibration of the methodology through the comparison between the simulations’ results and the sequence’s real data. Although calibrated on the L’Aquila dataset, the proposed procedure could also be applied to different urban areas, with both real and synthetic seismic sequences, enabling the forecasting of damage scenarios to support the development of effective strategies for seismic risk mitigation.