Study on the Instability Mechanisms and Collapse Pressure of Wellbores in Fractured Formations Based on the Multi-Weak-Plane Strength Criterion

To address the issue of wellbore instability during drilling in fractured formations, this study systematically investigates the influence mechanisms of fracture geometry and strength parameters on wellbore stability by constructing a multi-weak plane strength criterion and a thermo-hydro-chemical coupling model. Based on Jæger’s single weak plane criterion, a multi-weak plane strength criterion considering the synergistic effects of multiple fracture groups is established. By integrating Boit’s effective stress theory, an analytical solution for the stress field around a wellbore in fractured formations has been derived. A method for calculating collapse pressure and predicting instability zones is also proposed, utilizing the Newton–Raphson iterative algorithm. The results demonstrate that fracture systems markedly alter the anisotropic characteristics of wellbore stress. While the collapse pressure contour in intact formations exhibits bilateral symmetry (25.5–30 MPa), in formations with four fractures, the pressure increases to 29–37 MPa and the symmetry is lost. Furthermore, the instability zone in vertical wells evolves from a “crescent-shaped” pattern in homogeneous formations to a “quadrilateral-shaped” expansion. Notably, the instability area in horizontal wells is significantly smaller than in vertical wells. These outcomes offer theoretical guidance for optimizing the drilling fluid density window and well trajectory design in fractured formations.