Risk Assessment Framework for Structural Failures of Polar Ship Under Ice Loads

For polar ships, navigation in ice-covered regions can lead to high risk to structural safety. To study the structural risk induced by ice loads, a risk assessment framework is proposed based on a probabilistic analysis. The fatigue failure probability is derived with the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method. Typical ice load cases are extracted as a joint probability distribution of ice thickness and ship speed, based on shipboard measurements. Equivalent fatigue stresses for each case are calculated using a coupled discrete element method (DEM) and finite element method (FEM), and fatigue failure probabilities are obtained via linear cumulative damage theory. The ultimate strength failure probability is derived from the reliability theory. The probabilistic distribution of load-carrying capacity for the bow structure, determined by the moment estimation method, is used as the structural resistance, while the ice load distribution identified from shipboard monitoring is treated as the external load. Considering both the likelihood and consequence of failure, a risk matrix is constructed to assess structural failure risk. Inspection and maintenance intervals are then proposed according to the assessed risk levels. This approach offers a quantitative basis for structural risk management, supporting safe navigation and efficient maintenance planning for polar ships.