Allocation of the National Institutes of Health funding and burden of disease in 2008–2021 in the United States

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is critical in funding innovations in disease detection and treatment. We constructed a panel dataset that combined NIH funding allocation and the burden of disease (BoD) for 65 disease categories from 2008 through 2021 in the United States. A dynamic panel data model was employed to examine the relationship between NIH funding allocation and existing and prior BoD, while controlling for prior NIH funding allocation. We found an increase in both NIH funding and BoD over 2008–2021. Cross-sectionally, NIH funding allocation was associated with BoD in 2021 but not in 2008. However, longitudinally, NIH funding allocation was not associated with BoD in any specific year within the past five years. Thus, there is a weak association between the population’s health needs and NIH funding allocation, necessitating targeted strategies to incentivize public funding to better align with the changes in population health status.