Sustainable blue economy: energy consumption and carbon‑neutrality strategies for Albania’s marine and fisheries sectors

The maritime transportation and fisheries sectors play a crucial role in national food security and economic stability; however, they face significant sustainability challenges due to climate change and carbon emissions. This study investigates mitigation scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality in the sector by 2050, addressing both energy demand and emissions mitigation in accordance with the IMO 2023 decarbonization targets. Quantitative modeling using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform system, combined with multiple linear regression analysis, is utilized to simulate long-term energy demand, fuel substitution, and emissions across fisheries and navigation sub-sectors. The analysis compares the baseline scenario of continued fossil fuel reliance with an alternative decarbonization scenario. Under the baseline scenario, energy demand and emissions rise sharply, while the alternative scenario projects a 71.1% reduction in fisheries-related emissions and a 76.4% reduction in the navigation sector by 2050. Fossil fuel dependency declines from full reliance in 2025 to 5% in 2050, replaced by a diversified mix of renewable fuels. Total energy demand stabilizes at 0.723 TWh under the decarbonization pathway compared to 0.980 TWh under baseline conditions. Projected hydrogen adoption grows from 10% in 2030 to 30% in 2050, while biodiesel follows a comparable growth curve. Anticipated mitigation of 1.473 MtCO₂eq underscores the sector's potential to meet national climate targets when underpinned by regulatory support mechanisms and targeted investments. This study underscores the potential for Albania's maritime sector to lead decarbonization efforts in the Mediterranean region through an integrated strategy combining policy reform, technology adoption, and regional cooperation.