Evolving Innovation Ecosystems: Longitudinal Insights into the Triple Helix Model and Enterprise Innovation in China

Innovation is a crucial pathway for China’s modernization and sustainable development. To gain a deeper understanding of China’s innovation system, this study uses Chinese national statistical data from 2001 to 2022, adopts time series analysis and employs the triple helix model to explore the specific mechanisms and relative impacts of the interactions among universities, industries, and the government. The primary focus of the analysis is on the interactions between FDI and R&D, the interplay of market and institutional factors, and enterprise innovation. A time-series analysis examines the innovation process’s short- and long-term effects. The results of the VECM analysis reveal that, in the long run. The interaction between foreign direct investment and R&D and the interaction between market and institutional factors on firm innovation exert significant positive impacts on enterprise innovation. These variables exhibit strong bidirectional interactions in the short term, particularly in the mutual reinforcement observed between enterprise innovation and the external environment. The variance decomposition analysis shows that, while enterprise innovation is primarily driven by internal factors in the short term, the influence of external factors on innovation gradually increases over time. These findings highlight the role of external factors in promoting enterprise innovation, especially in terms of policy incentives, legal environment, and foreign investment. Therefore, the government should continue to optimize the innovation environment and policy support to promote sustainable economic development. This study contributes to the field by applying dynamic analysis and quantitative research methods to better understand the evolving nature of China’s innovation ecosystem.