Demographers as Desk Perpetrators? Population Experts and Serbia’s Kosovo Obsession in the 1980s and Thereafter

This article examines the role played by Serbian demographers in the lead-up to the Yugoslav Wars. I argue that demographic research contributed to nationalist narratives and territorial claims. Demographers propagated concepts such as the ‘demographic threat’ posed by non-Serb populations, particularly Albanians and Bosnian Muslims, and the notion of ‘genocide’ against Serbs. They linked fertility, ethnicity and territory. By focusing on the most prominent Yugoslav/Serbian demographer, Miloš Macura, and the research institutions he set up, the article traces the radicalisation of demography during the 1980s. I argue that demographers used nationalism to reframe demographic processes in ethnic terms and thereby increase their status. The work of these demographers influenced political leaders and was widely disseminated to the public, shaping collective consciousness and preparing the ground for conflict. The analysis is based on contemporaneous expert literature, policy documents and archival information. It also highlights the role of international debates about the connection between demography and development.