Nutrient asymmetry challenges the sustainability of Ukrainian agriculture

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted crop exports and global food security, overshadowing critical nutrient asymmetry and the associated environmental risks. Here we demonstrate that following nutrient shortages after independence in 1991, fertilizer use increased over 2000-2021, but has decreased sharply following the invasion in early 2022. Input-output balances of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) for staple crops (wheat, maize and sunflower) highlight soil P and K mining since 1991, increasing N surpluses during 2000-2021 and large NPK deficits since the war began in 2022. Based on analysis of five scenarios for 2030, we show how an Integrated Nutrient Management Plan for Ukraine combining manure recycling, precision fertilization and legume expansion is urgently needed, and would maintain crop productivity, significantly reduce nutrient surpluses and improve nutrient use efficiencies up to 80-89%, substantially curtailing environmental pollution and soil degradation.