Response of Northern Hemisphere Rossby wave breaking to changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover

Abstract. Although well-researched in the present climate, it is poorly understood how Rossby wave breaking (RWB) may change in a warmer future climate. In this study, we examine how large changes in sea ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) affect the frequency and spatial distribution of Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) seasons. Our experiment setup consists of eight 40-year atmosphere-only simulations from two models (OpenIFS and EC-Earth) that use different combinations of prescribed present-day and future SIC and SST values under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We find present-day RWB frequencies that correspond well with previous literature. Our models are generally in good agreement with regards to the spatial distribution of RWB. The effects of SSP5-8.5 SST on RWB are substantial, while simulations using future SIC and present-day SSTs do not exhibit statistically significant changes compared to the present. In simulations with SST changes, anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) frequencies show large decreases during both winter and summer, while the primary changes to cyclonic wave breaking (CWB) are small increases of varying magnitude in winter. The winter changes are notably collocated with changes in the strength and location of jet streams. The largest changes occur over the North Pacific, where winter AWB decrease by 60 %–70 % over the East Pacific and summer AWB decrease by roughly 50 % over the West Pacific and East Asia. Over the western North Atlantic, decreases of 10 %–30 % in winter AWB are collocated with a stronger eddy-driven jet, which may suggest an eastward shift in AWB. In summer, AWB decreases by about 50 % over North America but increases slightly over Europe. As with related previous studies of future changes in blocking and jet stream waviness, there are uncertainties in our results, and especially determining the impact of SIC changes likely requires longer simulations than those used in this study. This study demonstrates that particularly SST changes are an important component for changes to RWB in future climates.