Fear, efficacy, and the curtain call: evaluating the cognitive and temporal impact of cinema-based anti-smoking PSAs

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of government-mandated anti-smoking cinema advertisements in shaping smoking cessation intentions among Indian youth. Grounded in protection motivation theory (PMT), it examines the cognitive mechanisms underlying quit intention, captures the temporal decay of motivation over four weeks and assesses gender-based differences in threat and coping appraisals. Design/methodology/approach A quasi-experimental, two-wave longitudinal survey design was used. A sample of 1,600 smokers aged 18–24 was surveyed immediately after exposure to an anti-smoking cinema public service advertisement (Time 1) and a subsample of 600 participants was followed up four weeks later (Time 2). Structural equation modeling (SEM) and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to assess predictive pathways and motivational decay. Gender-based moderation was tested using multi-group SEM. Findings Self-efficacy and response efficacy were the strongest predictors of quit intention, while threat appraisals (perceived severity and vulnerability) also contributed significantly. A counterintuitive positive relationship was found between perceived rewards and quit intention, possibly reflecting cognitive dissonance. At Time 2, all PMT constructs and quit intention declined significantly, while perceived rewards and response costs increased. Gender moderated several pathways, with males responding more to efficacy and vulnerability and females to severity and rewards. Research limitations/implications The study focuses on intention rather than actual cessation behavior. All data were self-reported and follow-up SEM was limited due to sample constraints. Future studies should incorporate behavioral outcome measures and explore participatory approaches in campaign design. Practical implications The findings underscore the short-lived nature of fear-based appeals and the need for reinforcement strategies such as Short Message Service (SMS) boosters or peer-based engagement. Tailored messaging based on gender-specific cognitive pathways and inclusion of target audience voices through co-design can enhance campaign impact. The study also supports Sustainable Development Goal 3.5, aimed at reducing tobacco use among youth. Social implications This research offers actionable insights for public health practitioners and policymakers by evaluating a widely implemented but under-researched tobacco control intervention in a real-world setting. It contributes to evidence-based social marketing practice in low- and middle-income countries, especially India, where youth smoking remains a persistent concern. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to evaluate the cognitive and temporal effects of real-world anti-smoking cinema public service advertisements using PMT in an Indian context. It advances theory by integrating a systems-thinking lens and identifying demographic variation in protective motivation processes.