Spatiotemporal Analysis and Driving Factors of Desertification in Babusha Forest Farm

Land desertification is one of the most severe ecological challenges facing China, and it is particularly pronounced in the country's western regions. Therefore, it is crucial to select various desertification monitoring indicators for annual spatiotemporal analysis, to construct a composite ecological index, and to investigate the primary factors driving desertification. The research focuses on Babusha Forest Farm in Gulang County, a key national desertification monitoring location. We derive an integrated ecological index from three measures—vegetation coverage (FVC), desertification index (DI), and remote sensing ecological index (RSEI)—spanning 1986 to 2021. We correlate this index with net primary productivity (NPP) to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of desertification, forecast future trends, and finally build a grey relational model incorporating cultivated land area, construction land area, precipitation, and temperature to identify the main drivers of desertification at the site. The results indicate that desertification at Babusha Forest Farm is continually improving. Combined land-use data demonstrate that increases in both cropland and grassland drive ecological recovery, with cropland expansion exerting the greatest impact. The correlation between the integrated ecological index and NPP confirms the index's strong utility and overall reliability as an indicator in desertification monitoring. The grey relational model linking the composite ecological index with cultivated land area, construction land area, precipitation, and temperature yields grey relational degrees of 0.7012 and 0.7238 for anthropogenic factors, versus 0.6653 and 0.6552 for natural factors, indicating that human activities are the principal drivers of desertification improvement at Babusha Forest Farm.