Study on Risk Identification and Management Strategies for Green and LowCarbon Transformation of Large Island-Based Petrochemical Industrial Parks Towards Zero Carbon Park

Against the global carbon neutrality goal, large island-based petrochemical industrial parks face more complex compound risks in green and low-carbon transformation than inland parks, due to their unique attributes: high carbon emission base, sensitive island ecosystem, and high dependence on land-sea linkage. Taking Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base and Hainan Yangpu Economic Development Zone as empirical samples, this study integrates over 40 days of on-site surveys, in-depth interviews with 15 interdisciplinary experts (park managers, marine ecologists, low-carbon engineers), and policy text analysis. It first clarifies three core transformation constraints: marine ecological red line control, insufficient stability of island power grids, and typhoon-induced maritime transportation disruption. Second, it identifies 13 key risks across five dimensions (policy, technology, economy, ecology, operation), such as dynamic adjustment of island-specific environmental policies, immature offshore CCUS miniaturization technology, and insufficient emergency reserves. Finally, it proposes a "five-in-one" management and control plan: establishing an island policy tracking mechanism (monthly interpretation + quarterly adjustment), developing island-adapted modular low-carbon technologies, building a land-sea linked emergency supply chain (15-20-day raw material reserve + cross-sea bridge channels), setting up a marine ecological restoration fund (1% of park revenue), and constructing a digital risk early warning platform. This research provides practical guidance for island-based petrochemical parks to balance carbon emission reduction, stable economic growth, and marine ecological protection, and supplements a differentiated perspective for low-carbon transformation research of similar island industrial parks.