Predictive Nomogram For Root Caries Risk In The Elderly Chinese

This study aimed to develop a predictive nomogram for root caries risk in elderly individuals, providing clinicians with a reliable assessment tool for early intervention and personalized prevention strategies. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 310 adults aged 60+ years in Sichuan Province (June 2020 to December 2023), with approval from the Ethics Committee of West China Hospital of Stomatology (Approval No. WCHSIRB-D-2020-274). Data on oral health status, frailty, cognitive function, and socio-demographic factors were collected through clinical examinations and questionnaires. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified significant predictors, with the nomogram evaluated using ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. The prevalence of root caries was 57.74%. Multivariate analysis identified five independent risk factors: advancing age (OR=1.05), number of crown caries (OR=1.53), recurrent caries (OR=1.31), fewer unexposed tooth roots (OR=0.92), and wearing removable partial dentures (OR=3.13). The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination ability in both training and validation cohorts with AUC values of 0.840 and 0.834, respectively. This study successfully established a root caries risk prediction nomogram incorporating five clinically assessable factors that effectively identifies high-risk elderly individuals. This tool provides oral healthcare professionals with an evidence-based approach for risk stratification, facilitating targeted prevention strategies that hold significant academic and clinical value for improving oral health and quality of life in the aging population.