Association between NAFLD and liver cancer: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Observational studies suggest an association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and liver cancer, but its causal nature remains unclear. A 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed using NAFLD and liver cancer summary statistics from genome-wide association study databases. Instrumental variables satisfying the 3 core MR assumptions were selected. Causal effects were estimated using inverse-variance weighted, MR-Egger, weighted median, and other methods, followed by sensitivity and power analyses. All 4 MR analyses demonstrated a positive causal association between NAFLD and liver cancer risk [odds ratio > 1, inverse-variance weighted P < .001]. Sensitivity analysis indicated no significant level of multiplicity or heterogeneity in the instrumental variables, and individual single nucleotide polymorphisms had no significant impact on the results. However, statistical power was insufficient. This study provides the first MR evidence demonstrating a genetically predicted causal relationship between NAFLD and liver cancer that is consistent across subtypes. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the absence of horizontal pleiotropy or heterogeneity, strengthening the robustness of the findings. These results offer genetic support for early NAFLD intervention to reduce the risk of liver cancer. However, the limited statistical power highlights the need for larger-scale genome-wide association study to identify more and stronger genetic instruments for a more precise quantification of the causal effect of NAFLD on liver cancer risk.