Habitat quality assessment and spatiotemporal pattern evolution of the Black-necked Cranes (Grus nigricollis) in Tibet based on the MaxEnt-InVEST model

Under accelerating climate change, this study employs an integrated MaxEnt and InVEST modeling approach to assess habitat quality and predict distribution patterns for the wetland indicator species, the Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis ), across the Tibetan Plateau. The InVEST model revealed a distinct “low in the east and west, high in the center” spatial gradient in habitat quality, with high-quality habitats covering 399,245 km 2 in winter and 392,328 km 2 in summer. Only 7393 km 2 (0.61 % of the study area) exhibited severe degradation. MaxEnt modeling identified distance to water, slope, and annual mean temperature as the primary drivers of breeding habitat suitability, while wintering habitat selection was predominantly influenced by distance to settlements, slope, and isothermality. Currently, highly suitable breeding and wintering habitats cover 98,015 and 73,891 km 2 , respectively. Future climate projections indicate net expansion of both breeding and wintering habitats, although higher emission scenarios reduce total suitable area and drive habitat centroids northwestward toward higher latitudes and elevations. Spatial integration of model outputs demonstrated 71.6 % congruence between suitable habitats and high-quality wetlands. This strong overlap not only confirms the Black-necked Crane’s role as a key indicator of wetland ecosystem health but also highlights the conservation imperative for these critical habitats to ensure long-term species persistence and maintenance of ecosystem integrity.