Foresighting Scenarios for Green Hydrogen in Portugal: Systematization of Potential Futures and Identification of Bottlenecks and Constraints

ABSTRACT The use of green hydrogen has emerged as a promising avenue for facilitating the decarbonization of society. In this study, the potential futures of green hydrogen in Portugal, a key player in Europe's energy transition, are explored. Utilizing General Morphological Analysis combined with advanced clustering, the various political, social, and technological elements are analyzed to create a multifaceted view of the sector's future. This results in seven distinct scenario clusters, each offering unique insights into the challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen. The scenarios span a range of outcomes, from rapid growth fueled by strong policy support and technological advancements to more measured development due to economic or infrastructural hurdles. This study intends to provide stakeholders a deep understanding of the factors influencing green hydrogen's role in Portugal's push towards a sustainable energy landscape by 2030. These results provide a basis for the development of new projects and research directions, providing them with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Moreover, this study will contribute to decision support by facilitating actions aimed at fostering the appropriate development of green hydrogen.