Do SDGs Buffer Oil Rent Shocks? Panel Evidence on Unemployment Dynamics in the GCC

This study investigates whether targeted progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7, 8, and 9) can cushion the impact of oil dependence on unemployment in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. Using panel data for six countries from 2000 to 2021 and regression models with country fixed effects and system GMM, we incorporate interaction terms between oil rents and both disaggregated and composite SDG indicators. The results show that SDG 8 (Decent Work) exerts the strongest stabilizing effect, significantly reducing unemployment sensitivity to oil rents. SDG 7 (Clean Energy) exhibits transitional dynamics, with short-term adjustment costs during early stages of the energy transition. SDG 9 (Infrastructure) does not display consistent short-run effects. A composite SDG index also moderates the oil–unemployment link, though this effect is largely driven by SDG 8. Overall, the findings suggest that inclusive labour institutions and clean energy reforms enhance labour market resilience in resource-dependent economies, reducing vulnerability to external shocks and supporting more sustainable development pathways.