Spatial Analysis, Influencing Factors, and Source-Oriented Probabilistic Health Risks of Potential Toxic Elements in High Geological Background Soil in Central and Southern Shandong Peninsula, China

This study investigates the accumulation, influencing factors, sources, and health risks of eight potential toxic elements (PTEs) in soils from the central-southern Shandong Peninsula, a region characterized by a high geological background and intensive human activities. Concentrations of Cr, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, As, and Hg were analyzed in 19,484 topsoil samples. The results showed that Cr, Cu, and Ni levels exceeded national background values, primarily linked to basalt distribution. Utilizing positive matrix factorization (PMF), spatial analysis, and comparative assessment, four primary sources were identified: natural sources (36.79%), combined traffic and agricultural activities (34.20%), coal combustion (17.32%), and industrial emissions (11.69%). A health risk assessment indicated that while non-carcinogenic risk was within the acceptable limits for the general population, it exceeded the threshold for children in 2.53% of cases, with As from coal combustion being the predominant contributor. These findings provide a critical theoretical basis for implementing targeted, source-oriented control strategies to mitigate PTE pollution in areas where high geological background and anthropogenic activities intersect.