Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rocky Desertification in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, China

Rocky desertification in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area, the core water source of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, constitutes a significant ecological threat, primarily driven by historical deforestation and agricultural expansion. To addressing the previous lack of comprehensive evaluation and spatiotemporal analysis of rocky desertification in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area, this study utilized Google Earth Engine (GEE) and GeoDetector to analyze its evolution and driving factors from 1995 to 2022. The results indicated an overall improvement, with a 1002.02 km2 decrease in the desertification-prone area and an expansion of 26,077.31 km2 in the non-desertified area. However, desertification remains severe in the western and southeastern regions, while the northeastern and central areas showed relative stability. Notably, desertified areas decreased substantially between 1995 and 2022, reflecting the effectiveness of ecological restoration efforts. Key driving factors include potential evapotranspiration (PET), landform, elevation, and temperature, with interactions between PET and environmental variables exhibiting strong explanatory power. These findings highlight the complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors in desertification dynamics. Continuing human intervention is essential to restore vegetation, mitigate soil erosion risks, and ensure the long-term stability of the reservoir’s water resources.