Spatial-Temporal Coupling Mechanism and Influencing Factors of New-Quality Productivity, Carbon Emission Reduction and High-Quality Economic Development

In recent years, China has faced the dual challenge of achieving high-quality economic development (HQED) alongside carbon emission reduction (CER), with new-quality productivity (NQP) emerging as a key driver integrating both agendas. Research on the coordinated development of these three dimensions remains limited but is critical for effective policy-making. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2014–2023), this study constructs the NQP-CER-HQED evaluation indicator system; calculates the composite index using the entropy weight method and composite index calculation model; computes the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the three components via the CCD model; analyzes the temporal evolution and future trends of CCD using kernel density and GM(1,1) models; examines the spatial evolution of CCD through Moran’s I index; employs traditional Markov chains and spatial Markov chains to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of CCD; and applies the geographic detector method to analyze the influencing factors of CCD among NQP, CER and HQED. The findings reveal that (1) the CCD of China’s NQP-CER-HQED has undergone six levels, showing an overall upward trend; (2) temporally, CCD levels improve annually, with all provinces expected to achieve coordinated development by 2026; (3) spatially, the CCD exhibits a “high-east, low-west” tiered distribution; (4) spatially/temporally, the transition of the CCD levels is primarily gradual rather than leapfrogging; and (5) the level of opening up and new-quality labor resources are identified as dominant influencing factors, with the interaction between new-quality labor resources and government support showing the strongest explanatory power. This study provides an analytical framework for understanding the NQP-CER-HQED synergy and offers a scientific basis for sustainable policy formulation.