From Rebuilding to Restoring Political Order: A New Agenda for Failed Arab States

Abstract A new approach to rebuilding collapsed states is being trialed in the Arab world, most conspicuously by the Trump administration but with broad international support. This replaces the previous model—favoring democratic building blocks like inclusion, compromise, reconciliation, accountability, and citizenship—which is now seen as too costly. The new paradigm instead elevates powerful actors who can impose political and social order, backed by an emerging Council of the Middle East comprised of the leading Gulf states, Turkey, and Israel. This article examines the new approach, including the 20‐point plan to end the Gaza war. It finds that there are two fundamental contradictions. One is that the members of the potential council have divergent interests; Israel, for example, depends on instability within Arab states to ensure its hegemony. The second is that regional states have failed precisely because they were unaccountable and authoritarian. Picking a strongman or militia to reimpose order is to double down on the failed strategy. This analysis shows that it would be better to revise the previous model and make it more incremental, responsive to citizens, and autonomous from the strategic and economic interests of powerful external actors, including the United States.