Genetic Variability, Heritability, and Expected Gains for Yield and Forage Quality in Gamba Grass (Andropogon gayanus) Populations

Gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus Kunth) is a promising forage alternative for Brazil’s Cerrado regions, attracting increasing research interest due to its potential to complement or replace widely planted species such as Urochloa and Megathyrsus. Despite the release of three cultivars, significant improvements in dry matter (DM) yield and forage quality are needed to fully realize its agronomic potential. This study aimed to evaluate genetic variability, estimate narrow sense heritability, and predict expected genetic gains for DM yield and key forage quality traits in two gamba grass populations derived from the cultivars BRS Sarandi and Planaltina. Trials were established in spring 2017 in Planaltina, DF, and evaluated during February–March 2018 and January–March 2019. Crude protein (CP), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), cellulose (CEL), and hemicellulose (HEMIC) were quantified alongside DM yield. BRS Sarandi exhibited higher CP (12.3% vs. 9.8%) and lower NDF (57.1% vs. 63.4%), ADF (36.2% vs. 41.5%), CEL (20.8% vs. 23.7%), and HEMIC (20.9% vs. 21.9%) compared to Planaltina, while DM yield did not differ significantly between populations (4.57 t·ha−1 vs. 4.50 t·ha−1 per harvest, p > 0.05). Heritability estimates for individual harvests ranged from 0.31 to 0.68 for DM yield and 0.28 to 0.62 for quality traits, whereas multi-harvest models across years yielded lower estimates (0.07–0.27). Expected annual genetic gains were modest, with the highest predicted increase for CP (0.45% per year) and the largest decrease for NDF (−0.78% per year), reflecting the quantitative nature of trait inheritance and strong environmental influence. This study provides novel insights by simultaneously comparing two populations for multiple harvests and quantifying both yield and detailed forage quality traits, offering practical guidance for gamba grass breeding strategies. Results indicate that breeding programs should prioritize multiple selection cycles, precise phenotyping, genotypic and potentially genomic selection to accelerate improvement in both DM yield and forage quality, overcoming the constraints of low heritability and multi-trait selection.