Characterisation of GPS Horizontal Positioning Errors and Dst Using Recurrence Plot Analysis in Sub-Equatorial Ionospheric Conditions

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning performance may be degraded due to the effects of various natural and adversarial causes, most notably those related to space weather, geomagnetic, and ionospheric conditions and disturbances. Here we present a contribution to understanding the nature of geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions in terms of the effects on the GPS positioning performance through the comparative time-series analysis of the long-term annual (Year 2014) non-linear properties of Disturbance storm-time (Dst) index, an indicator of geomagnetic conditions, and the single-frequency commercial-grade GPS horizontal positioning errors as derived from raw single-frequency commercial-grade GPS observations taken at the International GNSS Service (IGS) reference station at Darwin, Northern Territory (NT), Australia. The analysis reveals candidate non-linear property indicators for future assessments and modelling, as potential descriptors of the long-term non-linear association between geomagnetic/ionospheric disturbances and GNSS positioning performance degradation: recurrence rate (RR), total number of lines in the recurrent plot, Shannon entropy, and trapping time (TT). The inference presented may serve as a framework for introducing advanced GNSS PNT correction procedures to mitigate environmental ionospheric effects on GNSS positioning performance, thereby offering more resilient and robust PNT services for GNSS applications in urban mobility, systems, and services.