Reforming trade governance for sustainable resource flows: Ecologically unequal exchange in Pan-Eurasia

Growing global resource demand is intensifying ecological inequality. Our integrated biophysical and governance analysis of 65 Pan-Eurasian nations shows that by 2050, under a business-as-usual pathway, 90 % of ecological overload (measured by the ecological carrying index, ECI) will occur in lower-income, agriculture-dependent countries (ECI > 1.2). Burdens are highly uneven: the poorest 50 % of countries bear 70 % of the overload, while the richest 10 % account for only 5 %. Even under a sustainability-oriented pathway, aggregate ecological pressure falls by only ∼4 %, indicating persistent governance challenges. Our governance assessment highlights that Central/Eastern Europe generally maintains sustainable ecological levels (ECI < 1.2) under decentralized-but-coordinated arrangements, while parts of South Asia exhibit fragmented institutions associated with high stress (ECI > 2.0). To address these imbalances, we outline three institutional reforms: (1) artificial-intelligence-supported land-use planning coupled with World Trade Organization-compliant ecological tariffs, (2) payment for ecosystem service mechanisms targeted to high-ECI regions, and (3) mandatory due diligence for deforestation-linked imports. These measures provide an operational pathway for implementing equitable (“just”) planetary boundaries under the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity, advancing accountability and fairness in Earth System Governance. • By 2050, half of Pan-Eurasia and Northeast Africa face overload, 90 % are low-income. • Towards sustainability scenario cuts burden despite limited gains in ecological supply. • The poorest 50 % bear 70 % of the burden, while the richest 10 % bear only 5 %. • Central/Eastern Europe shows <10 % deficits while South and Southeast Asia exceed 2 × .