Probabilistic Analysis of Creep and Shrinkage Effects on Prestressed Concrete Bridges Using Solid Element Models

Concrete creep and shrinkage are critical factors affecting the long-term performance of extradosed bridges, leading to deflection, stress redistribution, and potential cracking. Predicting these effects is challenging due to uncertainties in empirical models and a lack of long-term data. While beam element models are common in design, they often fail to capture complex stress fields in disturbed regions (D-regions), potentially leading to non-conservative assessments of crack resistance. This study presents a computationally efficient probabilistic framework that integrates the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method with a high-fidelity solid element model to analyze these time-dependent effects. Our analysis reveals that solid element models predict 14% higher long-term deflections and 64% greater sensitivity to creep and shrinkage parameters compared to beam models, which underestimate both the mean and variability of deformation. The FOSM-based framework proves highly efficient, with its prediction for the standard deviations of bridge deflection falling within 7.1% of those from the more computationally intensive Probability Density Evolution Method. Furthermore, we found that time-varying parameters have a minimal effect on principal stress directions, validating a scalar application of FOSM with less than 3% error. The analysis shows that uncertainties from creep and shrinkage models increase the 95% quantile of in-plane principal stresses by 0.58MPa, which is approximately 23% of the material’s tensile strength and increases the cracking risk. This research underscores the necessity of using high-fidelity models and probabilistic methods for the reliable design and long-term assessment of complex concrete bridges.