How natural disasters spread conflict

This paper studies how natural disasters spread conflicts within a network. We first construct a new panel data set that combines geo-referenced information about conflict events and natural disasters, for 5,944 districts in 53 African countries, over the period 1989–2020. Considering natural disasters as exogenous shocks that affect the combatants’ activity in a locality, we find that natural disasters decrease conflict incidence in the affected locality, increase conflict incidence in neighbouring localities, and lead to an overall net increase in conflict incidence. The spatial dispersion of conflict varies by the level of local rent-seeking opportunities and the level of international, post-disaster aid. We then provide a simple theoretical framework that may explain this conflict dispersion pattern. Findings provide important implications for implementing local and aggregate level conflict mitigation policies.