Narratives of social democracy’s demise: insights from the Portuguese case

The Portuguese Socialist Party (PS), often regarded as an exception to the decline of social-democratic (S-D) parties across Western Europe, has recently shown signs of vulnerability. This article explores, from a demand-side perspective, how the profile of its defectors (2002–2024) differs from dominant narratives about the challenges faced by S-D parties. Using original data, we show that the PS’s resilience relies on a stable base of loyal voters, but we also identify two patterns of defection: towards the radical left and, more recently, the radical right, driven, respectively, by cultural and economic concerns. These findings highlight the importance of both cultural and economic dimensions in the strategies of S-D parties, particularly for younger voters, as a path for renewal.