A Safety Risk Analysis of Tower Crane Construction Based on a Disaster Chain-Cloud Model

Abstract Given the multisource and uncertainty of tower crane construction safety risks, this study proposes a comprehensive risk analysis method that integrates disaster chain theory (DCT), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weight method (EWM), and cloud model. Firstly, based on the disaster chain theory, the topology of risk factors is established, and the key risk factors, such as equipment failure, operation error, environmental interference, and management defects in the operation of tower cranes, are systematically identified. An evaluation system consisting of four first-level indicators and 16 s-level indicators was constructed through the topological mapping of the disaster chain, and the analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method combined weighting method was used to integrate the subjective and objective weights to effectively balance the expert experience and data objectivity. The cloud model theory is introduced to deal with the ambiguity and randomness in risk assessment, and the mapping relationship between the risk level and the cloud characteristic parameters are established to achieve the conversion from qualitative concept to quantitative evaluation. The case application shows that the risk factors with higher weight ranking include: fatigue/deformation of steel structure, and failure of safety devices. This study innovatively combines dynamic weight optimization with uncertainty modeling to provide a visual risk assessment method for tower crane construction companies.