Environmental Perspectives on Distributed Generation: Economic Feasibility and Risk-Based Assessment of Poultry Waste Biogas Power Plants

The growing demand for sustainable energy requires solutions that combine economic feasibility, environmental benefits, and positive social impacts. In this context, the use of poultry waste as feedstock for biogas production emerges as a promising alternative, contributing to waste reduction and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the economic feasibility and risk of implementing a consortium-based biogas-fired power plant within Brazil’s Micro and Mini Distributed Generation (MMDG) framework. Two scenarios were evaluated: the first included the cost of acquiring poultry manure, while the second excluded this expense. In both cases, the results confirmed economic feasibility, with positive Net Present Value (NPV), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) above the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR), and favorable Discounted Payback Periods. Scenario 2 provided greater investment security, as only 0.05% of simulations indicated infeasibility, compared to 0.12% in Scenario 1. Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the availability and cost of poultry manure were the most critical variables influencing economic performance. Beyond financial indicators, the consortium-based distributed generation model demonstrates potential to attract investors, diversify the energy mix, and deliver socio-economic and environmental benefits. This study contributes to both academic research and practical applications by providing valuable guidance for investors and policymakers in renewable distributed generation.