From Events to Systems: Modeling Disruption Dynamics and Resilience in Global Green Supply Chains

Global supply chains are increasingly exposed to systemic disruptions driven by environmental pressures, geopolitical instability, and social unrest. Although Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) is a strategic approach balancing sustainability and competitiveness, current research remains fragmented and regionally focused. Prior research has identified critical chokepoints and conceptualized disruption propagation through simulation and event system theory, yet few studies have operationalized large-scale empirical datasets to quantify cross-domain resilience. Addressing this gap, we collected and analyzed over 1.8 million news articles from more than 705 global portals spanning October 2023 to September 2025. Using GPT-based autonomous classification, approximately 67,434 disruption events directly related to GSCM were extracted and categorized by event type, geography, and significance. A system-of-systems framework was employed, linking seven domains: environment and climate, energy and resources, manufacturing and production, logistics and transportation, trade and commerce, agri-food systems, and labor and social systems. The results demonstrate that disruptions are unevenly distributed. The United States (8945 events), China (7822), and India (5311) emerged as global hubs, while Saudi Arabia acted as a single-domain chokepoint in energy. Energy and resources accounted for 22 percent of all events, followed by logistics (19 percent) and manufacturing (17 percent). Temporal analysis revealed major spikes in February 2024 (56,595 weighted intensity units) and June 2024 (10,861 units). Correlation analysis confirmed strong interdependencies across domains with average values greater than 0.7. This study contributes a globally scalable, data-driven framework to quantify disruption intensity, frequency, and interdependence in GSCM. It advances resilience research and offers actionable insights for policymakers and industry leaders.