Agricultural diversification as a strategy for drought resilience in Brazil

Abstract The objective of this work was to evaluate the impact of extreme and exceptional droughts, classified by Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), on agricultural production diversity, measured by the Shannon index, from 2014 to 2023. Data from the drought monitor of ANA and from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística were used to calculate diversity indices at the municipal level in Brazil. The unconditional quantile regression was applied to evaluate the effects of droughts on diversified systems, considering the production value of temporary and permanent crops, as well as livestock inventory. The obtained results reveal that less diversified municipalities are more vulnerable, particularly in the Northeastern region. Permanent crops show a higher resilience, while temporary crops sustain losses even in diversified systems. Livestock exhibits adaptive responses, with an increased diversity in some cases. Although diversification reduces vulnerabilities, it requires complementary policies for annual crops and targeted support to the Northeast.