The Pollutants and Carbon Emissions Reduction Pathway in Gansu Province Based on Power Supply and Demand Scenario Analysis

Gansu Province, as a core region for the development of renewables in China, has significant research value in the synergistic pathway of its power supply–demand structure and pollution and carbon emission reduction goals. This study focuses on the pollution and carbon reduction challenges faced by Gansu Province and the current situation of power supply and demand. Based on scenario-setting methods, it couples the GCAM-China model with the DPEC model to construct a pathway for pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in Gansu’s power system and predicts the future change in pollution and carbon emission reduction. It provides important support for the sustainable development of Gansu Province. Research indicates that by significantly increasing the share of renewable energy in the short term (2025–2040)—with installed capacity growing by 1–2 times and electricity generation reaching 148.6 billion kWh—the power sector can achieve carbon neutrality and near-zero pollution emissions by 2060. And the provincial carbon emissions will be 92.8% lower than in 2020, SO2 emissions will be 93.9% lower, and NOx emissions will be 92.3% lower, thus the synergistic benefits of pollution reduction and carbon reduction will be significantly enhanced. Additionally, the lower costs of production, energy dispatch, and renewable energy storage will increase industrial electrification rates by about 40% between 2020 and 2040. Gansu Province should vigorously promote the transformation of its energy structure while improving the flexibility of the power system to facilitate the integration and absorption of renewable energy. Promoting the development of clean and low-carbon technologies from both supply and demand sides, facilitating the substitution of traditional fossil fuels, and providing clean, reliable, and economical power assurance for the sustainable development of Gansu Province.