Climate Change, Factor Inputs and Cotton Yield Growth: Evidence from the Main Cotton Producing Areas in China

Increasing the yield per unit area is crucial for achieving stable growth in China’s cotton production. Based on the transcendental logarithmic production function model and using panel data from eight major cotton-producing provinces in China from 1990 to 2022, this paper measures the elasticity of climate factors and factor inputs and calculates the contribution rate of each factor influencing cotton yield increase. The results show that accumulated temperature positively impacts cotton yield, while precipitation and sunshine duration have negative effects. Climate factors contribute 7.95% to yield growth. Among input factors, agricultural machinery and labor inputs positively affect yield, whereas fertilizer input negatively affects it. Factor inputs contribute 44.21% to yield improvement. Technological progress also plays a role in enhancing cotton yield. Finally, the paper suggests improving meteorological disaster forecasting, optimizing input structures, and promoting agricultural research and technology services based on local conditions.