Sensitivity of Soil Moisture Simulations to Noah-MP Parameterization Schemes in a Semi-Arid Inland River Basin, China

Soil moisture simulations in semi-arid inland river basins remain highly uncertain due to complex land–atmosphere interactions and multiple parameterization schemes in land surface models. This study evaluated the ability of the Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) to simulate soil moisture at meteorological sites representing the upstream, midstream and downstream regions of a semi-arid inland river basin with contrasting climates. A large physics-ensemble experiment (17,280 simulations per site) combining different parameterization schemes for 10 main physical processes was conducted. Natural selection, Tukey’s test and uncertainty contribution analysis were applied to identify sensitive processes and quantify their contributions to simulation uncertainty. Results indicate that Noah-MP captures soil moisture variability across the basin but with notable biases. Three physical processes—frozen soil permeability, supercooled liquid water in frozen soil and ground resistance to sublimation—were sensitive at all sites, whereas radiation transfer and surface albedo were consistently insensitive. At the upstream and midstream sites, supercooled liquid water contributed about half of the ensemble uncertainty, and at the downstream site ground resistance to sublimation contributed roughly 51%. These findings reveal which physical processes most strongly affect Noah-MP soil moisture simulations in semi-arid basins and provide guidance for improving parameterization schemes to reduce uncertainty.