Predicting Rapid, Climate-Driven Shifts in North American Habitat Suitability for the Purple Pitcher Plant (Sarracenia purpurea L.)

Climate change is shifting where suitable habitats occur for many species across the planet. <i>Sarracenia purpurea</i> L., the most widely distributed pitcher plant species in North America, already faces significant threats from land use change. While <i>S. purpurea</i> is well studied at physiological and local scales, threat assessments for this species at biogeographic scales are absent. Here, we remedy this by using Habitat Suitability Models to predict current suitable habitats and estimate climate-based shifts in the suitable habitat for <i>S. purpurea</i> in the near (2040) and long term (2100). The models predicted large areas of habitat loss in the southeastern United States and the western portion of the Great Lakes region by 2040. While the models also predict significant gains in suitable habitats north of the current <i>S. purpurea</i> range, the limited dispersal ability of this species precludes the possibility of natural migration to newly suitable habitats. Our results suggest that the degradation of considerable portions of current suitable habitats is already occurring and will continue in the future. Particularly threatened are the southern subspecies (e.g., <i>Sarracenia purpurea</i> subsp. <i>venosa</i>) of <i>S. purpurea</i>. We therefore urge land managers to make conservation efforts targeting threatened subspecies and encourage further the biogeographic investigation of less widely distributed congenerics of <i>S. purpurea</i>.